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How does Prophet (and decomposable forecasting) work, and when does it beat or lose to ARIMA and gradient boosting?

Prophet treats forecasting as curve-fitting trend plus seasonality plus holidays, not as a stochastic process. The signal is knowing why that design wins on business data and where it quietly fails. Here is the answer.

Updated Aug 2026 · Grounded in real Applied AI Engineer interview loops and written to a senior-engineer editorial bar.

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